Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Saturday 04 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths in the previous day

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 7391 (+1508) 276931 (+32701) 12268 (+1865) 257272 (+29328)
France 6507 (+1120) 64338 (+5233) 14008 (+1580) 43823 (+2533)
Spain 11198 (+850) 119199 (+7134) 30513 (+3770) 77488 (+2514)
Italy 14681 (+766) 119827 (+4585) 19758 (+1480) 85388 (+2339)
United Kingdom 3605 (+684) 38168 (+4450) 135 (+0) 34428 (+3766)
Germany 1275 (+168) 91159 (+6365) 24575 (+2135) 65309 (+4062)
Netherlands 1487 (+148) 15723 (+1026) 250 (+0) 13986 (+878)
Iran 3294 (+134) 53183 (+2715) 17935 (+1224) 31954 (+1357)
Belgium 1143 (+132) 16770 (+1422) 2872 (+377) 12755 (+913)
Turkey 425 (+69) 20921 (+2786) 484 (+69) 20012 (+2648)
Switzerland 591 (+55) 19606 (+779) 4846 (+833) 14169 (-109)
Sweden 358 (+50) 6131 (+563) 205 (+102) 5568 (+411)
Brazil 363 (+39) 9194 (+1150) 127 (+0) 8704 (+1111)
Portugal 246 (+37) 9886 (+852) 68 (+0) 9572 (+815)
Canada 208 (+35) 12375 (+1092) 2186 (+207) 9981 (+850)
Philippines 136 (+29) 3018 (+385) 52 (+1) 2830 (+355)
Ecuador 145 (+25) 3368 (+205) 65 (+0) 3158 (+180)
Ireland 120 (+22) 4273 (+424) 5 (+0) 4148 (+402)
Algeria 105 (+19) 1171 (+185) 62 (+1) 1004 (+165)
Romania 133 (+18) 3183 (+445) 283 (+16) 2767 (+411)
Denmark 139 (+16) 3757 (+371) 1193 (+104) 2425 (+251)
Poland 71 (+14) 3383 (+437) 56 (+0) 3256 (+423)
Mexico 50 (+13) 1510 (+132) 633 (+598) 827 (-479)
Indonesia 181 (+11) 1986 (+196) 134 (+22) 1671 (+163)
Austria 168 (+10) 11524 (+395) 2022 (+273) 9334 (+112)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 55818 (+6154) 1016152 (+83448) 151799 (+16220)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 66102 ( +8380) 1219405 ( +137262) 181502 ( +25058)
Sun 05 April 2020 75699 ( +9597) 1374078 ( +154673) 210574 ( +29071)
Mon 06 April 2020 86690 ( +10991) 1548370 ( +174293) 244302 ( +33728)
Tue 07 April 2020 99276 ( +12586) 1744771 ( +196400) 283432 ( +39130)
Wed 08 April 2020 113689 ( +14414) 1966083 ( +221313) 328829 ( +45398)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 3322 (+4) 81620 (+31) 76571 (+163)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 3253 ( +0) 81004 ( +0) 75231 ( +78)
Sun 05 April 2020 3254 ( +0) 81004 ( +0) 75299 ( +68)
Mon 06 April 2020 3254 ( +0) 81004 ( +0) 75358 ( +59)
Tue 07 April 2020 3254 ( +0) 81005 ( +0) 75410 ( +51)
Wed 08 April 2020 3254 ( +0) 81005 ( +0) 75454 ( +45)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 11198 (+850) 119199 (+7134) 30513 (+3770)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 11596 ( +595) 123332 ( +5505) 33309 ( +3204)
Sun 05 April 2020 12099 ( +504) 128137 ( +4805) 36249 ( +2940)
Mon 06 April 2020 12517 ( +418) 132273 ( +4136) 38865 ( +2615)
Tue 07 April 2020 12859 ( +341) 135790 ( +3518) 41126 ( +2262)
Wed 08 April 2020 13134 ( +275) 138752 ( +2962) 43035 ( +1909)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 14681 (+766) 119827 (+4585) 19758 (+1480)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 14975 ( +530) 120271 ( +2730) 20184 ( +974)
Sun 05 April 2020 15445 ( +470) 122654 ( +2383) 21089 ( +905)
Mon 06 April 2020 15857 ( +413) 124721 ( +2067) 21920 ( +831)
Tue 07 April 2020 16217 ( +359) 126505 ( +1784) 22675 ( +756)
Wed 08 April 2020 16527 ( +310) 128037 ( +1532) 23356 ( +681)

United States

I use the combined data for all the states combined

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 7391 (+1508) 276931 (+32701) 12268 (+1865)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 9369 ( +1867) 346404 ( +52778) 16696 ( +3613)
Sun 05 April 2020 11701 ( +2332) 408669 ( +62265) 21307 ( +4611)
Mon 06 April 2020 14613 ( +2912) 482126 ( +73457) 27191 ( +5884)
Tue 07 April 2020 18250 ( +3637) 568786 ( +86661) 34700 ( +7509)
Wed 08 April 2020 22793 ( +4543) 671024 ( +102238) 44283 ( +9583)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 6507 (+1120) 64338 (+5233) 14008 (+1580)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 7656 ( +1281) 68554 ( +4194) 17688 ( +2732)
Sun 05 April 2020 9195 ( +1539) 72490 ( +3936) 20919 ( +3231)
Mon 06 April 2020 11042 ( +1848) 76132 ( +3642) 24740 ( +3821)
Tue 07 April 2020 13261 ( +2219) 79457 ( +3326) 29259 ( +4519)
Wed 08 April 2020 15926 ( +2665) 82459 ( +3001) 34603 ( +5344)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 3294 (+134) 53183 (+2715) 17935 (+1224)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 3251 ( +67) 55866 ( +2987) 20475 ( +1612)
Sun 05 April 2020 3310 ( +59) 58858 ( +2992) 22225 ( +1750)
Mon 06 April 2020 3361 ( +51) 61838 ( +2980) 24124 ( +1899)
Tue 07 April 2020 3405 ( +44) 64790 ( +2952) 26186 ( +2062)
Wed 08 April 2020 3443 ( +38) 67698 ( +2908) 28424 ( +2238)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 1275 (+168) 91159 (+6365) 24575 (+2135)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 1627 ( +291) 93173 ( +4133) 33144 ( +6234)
Sun 05 April 2020 1982 ( +354) 96820 ( +3647) 40823 ( +7679)
Mon 06 April 2020 2413 ( +431) 99997 ( +3177) 50280 ( +9457)
Tue 07 April 2020 2938 ( +525) 102732 ( +2735) 61928 ( +11648)
Wed 08 April 2020 3577 ( +639) 105065 ( +2332) 76276 ( +14347)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 3605 (+684) 38168 (+4450) 135 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 4514 ( +900) 46429 ( +6707) 188 ( +13)
Sun 05 April 2020 5639 ( +1125) 54269 ( +7839) 202 ( +14)
Mon 06 April 2020 7044 ( +1405) 63431 ( +9163) 217 ( +15)
Tue 07 April 2020 8798 ( +1755) 74141 ( +10710) 233 ( +16)
Wed 08 April 2020 10990 ( +2192) 86660 ( +12518) 250 ( +17)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 358 (+50) 6131 (+563) 205 (+102)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 448 ( +85) 6451 ( +497) 336 ( +135)
Sun 05 April 2020 551 ( +103) 6965 ( +514) 563 ( +227)
Mon 06 April 2020 676 ( +125) 7495 ( +529) 942 ( +380)
Tue 07 April 2020 826 ( +150) 8035 ( +541) 1578 ( +636)
Wed 08 April 2020 1006 ( +180) 8584 ( +548) 2644 ( +1065)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 1487 (+148) 15723 (+1026) 250 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 1608 ( +132) 16344 ( +774) 250 ( +0)
Sun 05 April 2020 1728 ( +119) 17033 ( +688) 250 ( +0)
Mon 06 April 2020 1833 ( +105) 17637 ( +604) 250 ( +0)
Tue 07 April 2020 1924 ( +91) 18160 ( +524) 250 ( +0)
Wed 08 April 2020 2001 ( +77) 18610 ( +449) 250 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 71 (+14) 3383 (+437) 56 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 83 ( +15) 3570 ( +300) 56 ( +0)
Sun 05 April 2020 102 ( +19) 3862 ( +292) 56 ( +0)
Mon 06 April 2020 125 ( +23) 4141 ( +279) 56 ( +0)
Tue 07 April 2020 153 ( +28) 4403 ( +262) 56 ( +0)
Wed 08 April 2020 187 ( +34) 4646 ( +242) 56 ( +0)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 591 (+55) 19606 (+779) 4846 (+833)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 649 ( +55) 19455 ( +448) 6401 ( +1454)
Sun 05 April 2020 700 ( +51) 19826 ( +371) 8282 ( +1881)
Mon 06 April 2020 748 ( +47) 20130 ( +305) 10715 ( +2434)
Tue 07 April 2020 790 ( +42) 20379 ( +249) 13864 ( +3149)
Wed 08 April 2020 827 ( +37) 20581 ( +202) 17939 ( +4075)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 1143 (+132) 16770 (+1422) 2872 (+377)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 1324 ( +168) 17839 ( +1119) 3623 ( +617)
Sun 05 April 2020 1486 ( +162) 18848 ( +1009) 4366 ( +743)
Mon 06 April 2020 1637 ( +151) 19740 ( +892) 5261 ( +896)
Tue 07 April 2020 1773 ( +136) 20517 ( +776) 6341 ( +1079)
Wed 08 April 2020 1890 ( +118) 21183 ( +666) 7641 ( +1301)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.